I'm Basically a Psychic

So from my understanding Oscar nominations come out tomorrow. As some of you (or the 2 people who will read this- Hi Mom and Amber!) may know, I consider The Academy Awards to be the best show on all of tv. Yes, even better than “Mad Men.” And I love me some Don Draper.

So, in prep I would like to guess what will be nominated. I’m doing very little research- but there are just some hunches in a few categories. Because why wait 16 hours or so to find the actual nominations when I can ramble on and guess first? The nominations are normally announced very early in the morning and while I could just stay up… I don’t wanna. And I’m certainly not waking up early!

Oh, and can I just say that I am a firm believer in having only 5 nominations in Best Picture. 10 is just stupid and muddies the competition.

Ok, so best picture. The three top contenders here are “True Grit,” “The Social Network” and “The King’s Speech.” The winner will be one of these three. But, to fill out the other 2 spots I think they will just copy the BAFTA’s category and add in “Inception” and “Black Swan.”

Jumping ahead I think they Best Original Screenplay will be either “Inception” or “The Social Network.” If it is based on originality, “Inception” all the way. I personally would place my vote here. However, Aaron Sorkin is a great writer and pulled all the right punches in the “Social Network” and could very well walk away the winner here- especially if he doesn’t win Best Picture. (Best Non-Original Screenplay will go to “True Grit.” I don’t know what the other nominations in this category will be. Sorry for my lack of research on this impromptu blog.)

Back to Best Picture- if they do the 10 movies again, “127 Hours,” “Down the Rabbit Hole,” “The Kids are All Right” and “The Fighter.” And if the Academy is feeling quirky “Toy Story 3” will be the last one. Thankfully these movies are quality and wouldn’t disgrace the stupidity of nominating 10 movies as much as last year nominations did.

Best Director will be a mirror of Best Picture. The Coen Brothers for “True Grit.” Great chance but they did just win for “No Country for Old Men.” Another western. Sooo… Danny Boyle has the same problem with “127 Hours” and “Slumdog Millionaire.” But come on! His movie made people faint! That’s crazy impressive there. Christopher Nolan for “Inception.” He hasn’t won recently and this movie could have been so easily derailed with another director. The directing really made this an amazing movie. Whereas we’ve seen “True Grit” be a good movie with another director. If he doesn’t steal this category, it will follow Best Picture with the winner.

Ok, so Best Actor in a Leading Role. Jeff Bridges (“True Grit”). In my mind he is the underdog to beat. His performance was amazing, but he doesn’t have a great history of winning awards- plus he won last year and people may think it’s “time” for someone else. But he wasn’t even nominated for The Dude and that’s a mistake that can’t be undone.

Off of how awesome Jeff Bridges is. Leo for “Inception,” may be a long shot- but only because this was a summer blockbuster. If “Inception” had come out in the last month or two, it would be sweeping the nominations. C’est la vie. Christopher Nolan isn’t stupid and decided he wanted a blockbuster movie more than award-riddled movie. Collin Firth (“The King’s Speech), James Franco (“127 Hours”) and Jesse Eisenburg (“The Social Network”).

Franco has a great shot because the movie won’t get to win Best Picture and Danny Broyle is going to have a hard time winning again so close to his win for “Slumdog Millionaire.” So this movie’s big shot is Franco. And Franco is hot right now (while I do find him attractive, wrong usage of the word). If I heard right, he’s co-hosting the Academy Awards this year and can you imagine how awesome that would be if the presenter wins???

Otherwise Collin Firth has it. He’s the safe, politically correct bet here. Now, I haven’t seen the movie, so I’m just inferring here. But he’s a wonderfully solid actor in every movie. And I doubt this is any better. But I have to wonder if it’s so much better than what he normally does. That’s why I think we should branch out to The Dude or Franco.

Sorry this is turning into my guess for who will win the Oscar rather than who will be nominated… but I think this is all the more impressive and I’m having fun. 

Best Actress. Oh, that little girl in “True Grit” carried the movie and made it what it was. I think it would be amazing to celebrate a young actress in a role that depicts a strong female character instead of the stereotypical catty teenager in love with a vampire that twinkles. I feel that Hailee Steinfeld would be a great role model winner. But she better be nominated at the very least.

Natalie Portman for “Black Swan.” She has a good chance since “Black Swan” won’t win for picture or director, so she might get that vote. But it seems the Best Actress award isn’t as political as the Best Actor so it’s harder to determine that way.
But the other nominations are hard to guess. I’m sure either (or both) Annett Benning and Julianne Moore will be nominated for “The Kids Are All Right.” Nicole Kidman cries and yells a lot in “Rabbit Hole” and people are freaked out when she shows that much emotion, so she’s got a shot. Then there are some others on the sidelines. Meh.

And yet, I find this the hardest category to guess the winner of.

Best Supporting Actor is harder to guess the nominations of since I haven’t really seen the movies from which they’ll be grabbed. Personally I would like to see Matt Damon nominated here for his great character in “True Grit,” but I doubt he will be. If I’m speculating as to why it’s because he’s such an A-list actor and it might seem like an insult to be nominated for “supporting actor.” But… oh well.

Otherwise we’ll have Geoffrey Rush (“The King’s Speech”) and Andrew Garfield (“The Social Network”) for sure. I will also toss the win to one of them- but I’ll wait until the SAG awards and BAFTA to make my final call.

Supporting Actress is in a similar boat. I see that in the SAG awards little Hailee Steinfield put her in this category which is insane, but it does up her chances dramatically of winning. But BAFTA has her in the Best Actress category, so I’m unsure how she’s being marketed. She’s absolutely not a supporting actress- she’s the main character of the entire film. But whatev. So perhaps she will end up here and in which case I think she’ll win hands down.

Then we have the lovely Mila Kunis (“Black Swan”) who won’t win. I’m sure she was good, but she should be touched to be nominated and leave it at that. Amy Adams (“The Fighter”) is turning into the Oscar’s “it” girl. And she’s talented enough to deserve that. She’ll have a great shot if Hailee isn’t in this category. Helena Bonham Carter (“The King’s Speech) will probably not win on the simple fact people would be scared to listen to her acceptance speech. I do not think morbid curiosity will get her on stage. And the others??? Yeah, not sure.

So there you have it. My predictions on the nominations and some of the wins.

In other news “127 Hours” should win best score but I bet “The Social Network” will. PEOPLE FAINTED! That is worth an award! Then I would love for “Alice in Wonderland” to win best costume design, but I bet “The King’s Speech” will. Oh, and “Toy Story 3” will win best animated (duh!) and “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” will win Best Foreign- finally making it an easy category to guess.

So there you really have it. Don’t you feel more cultured now? I do.